Mexico is recovering from its worst economic setback in the last 80 years. After a GDP decrease of 6.5% in 2009, the most recent forecasts estimate a 5% increase for 2010. This forecast has been increased during the 2nd semester of 2010, and shows the thrust received by exports to the United States.
This growth allows reaching, by the end of 2010 or beginning of 2011, the same GDP that Mexico had on 2008 first quarter (at constant currency); it means that the crises caused the loss of 3 years of economic activity! And regarding GDP per capita, it will recover around 2013 according to World Bank’s statistics.
The economic sectors with more growth in the last year have been commerce, manufacturing, educational services, and lodging, food and beverages services. However, neither has reached 2008 levels.
On the other hand, there are sectors still shrinking in the last year, such as construction, professional, scientific and technical services, and health and social assistance services.
The only sector that did not have any contraction on these two and a half years was information on media, which comprises printed and electronic media.
What are the expectations for 2011? For the World, as well as for Latin America, projections are that there will be a growth, but slower than 2010. For Mexico, the most recent forecasts are between 3.5% and 3.9%. The forecasts have been decreased during the year, mainly because the expectations for an economy expansion in the United States have been reduced (they are now between 2.3% and 2.6%).
These projections present a scenario with caution and risks for the next year. Mexico will keep a great dependence on United States’ recovery, and the growth rate will make employment and income recoveries something that won’t happen before 2 to 3 years. But there will also be economic sectors with very interesting growth rates, so it will be important to keep a tracking of the environment to identify these opportunities.
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